2023 Charles Schwab Predictictions
2023 Charles Schwab Challenge odds, predictions: Favorites and picks from the field
Last week we won big on Brooks Koepka (+2200 at FOX Bet) at the PGA Championship. Let's see if we can replicate the magic as we turn our attention to the Colonial for the Charles Schwab Challenge.
The par-70 track is 7,209 yards long with Bentgrass greens. The 87-year-old course has hosted the tournament since 1946, making it the longest-running non-major tournament at the same venue. This helps us from a betting perspective, as we can dig through plenty of data to help us narrow down our card.
Sam Burns won the tournament last year in a playoff over Scottie Scheffler. Burns comes into this week at +2200 to repeat, while Scheffler is the clear-cut favorite to win, +400 at FOX Bet. We'd be remiss if we didn't talk about PGA professional Michael Block, who was the real hero of last weekend outside of Koepka. Block, a sponsor’s exemption this week, is listed at +30000 to win the tournament.
I can go on and on about how good Scheffler is, but his number is just too short for me to throw down some pizza money on.
Now that we teed off with the basics, let's approach the favorites and my outright portfolio for this tournament.
Charles Schwab Challenge Odds & Field
Scottie Scheffler +400 (bet $10 to win $50)
Jordan Spieth +1400 (bet $10 to win $150)
Viktor Hovland +1400 (bet $10 to win $150)
Tony Finau +1400 (bet $10 to win $150)
Collin Morikawa +1600 (bet $10 to win $170)
Sungjae Im +1800 (bet $10 to win $190)
Max Homa +2200 (bet $10 to win $230)
Sam Burns +2200 (bet $10 to win $230)
Justin Rose +2500 (bet $10 to win $260)
Rickie Fowler +2800 (bet $10 to win $290)
Odds for the complete field at FOX Bet
Tony Finau (+1400 at FOX Bet)
Jordan Spieth (+1400 at FOX Bet)
Colin Morikawa (+1800 at FOX Bet)
Tommy Fleetwood (+3300 at FOX Bet)
Cam Davis (+3500 at FOX Bet)
Chris Kirk (+3500 at FOX Bet)
Just missed: Sungjae Im (+1800 at FOX Bet)
Source: Fox Sports
Brooks returns to elite form over weekend
2023 PGA Championship leaderboard: Brooks Koepka wins fifth major, third PGA in return to elite form
Scaling the mountaintop once is difficult; staying there is nearly impossible. Returning to the summit is almost unheard of, but don't tell that to Brooks Koepka. Four years removed from capturing his last major championship, Koepka stood victorious at one of the sport's premier tournaments winning the 2023 PGA Championship at Oak Hill Country Club by two strokes over Viktor Hovland and Scottie Scheffler.
The victory is first for Koepka (-9) at a major since the 2019 PGA Championship. It marks a return to form for one of the game's brightest stars, who had been plagued over the last three years by knee injuries that led him to question whether he had a future atop the sport he once dominated.
Koepka scored consecutive 4-under 66s to storm to the top of the star-studded field over the weekend, adding a 67 on Sunday to join Jack Nicklaus and Tiger Woods as the third golfer to win three or more PGA Championships in the stroke-play era. He also becomes the fifth player to win as many PGAs and at least two U.S. Opens -- standing alongside Woods, Nicklaus, Gene Sarazen and Walter Hagen -- and the 20th in history with at least five major titles on their mantle.
While Koepka had seven top-10 finishes across the 13 majors he played since that 2019 PGA victory, he finished no better than 55th with two missed cuts in last season's four majors. To start 2023 with a pair of top-two finishes at the Masters and PGA, there's no question that Koepka has returned to form.
It all confirms what many already believed: Koepka is one of the great major championship competitors ever.
"I look back on where we were two years ago, everything that's gone on, I'm just so happy right now that I'm kind of at a loss for words," Koepka said after hoisting the Wanamaker Trophy. "To be with those group of names is absolutely incredible, something, I'll be honest, I'm not even sure if I dreamed of it as a kid winning this many."
Despite what the final score may suggest, Koepka's fifth major came with its fair share of adversity -- not only in the years leading up to it but just last month at the 2023 Masters (where he stood as the 54-hole leader only to finish second) and Sunday within the final round of the PGA Championship itself.
Kick-starting his day with three consecutive birdies on holes 2-4, Koepka saw his overnight lead balloon to three. And then he hit a speed bump. When his tee shot found the penalty area on the difficult par-4 6th, Koepka did well to just drop one before dropping another on the next.
All his hard work had temporarily been erased, and the added cushion he had built over Hovland suddenly evaporated. He made the turn in 1 under, as did Hovland, and went to the back nine face-to-face with the 25-year-old as Scheffler, the reigning PGA Tour Player of the Year, was up ahead making a charge of his own.
Two birdies sandwiched a bogey on the 11th for Koepka, and while the par breakers added some breathing room, it was a par conversion on the par-5 13th that was vintage. Missing the green with his third and chipping his fourth to 10 feet above the hole, the 33-year-old successfully navigated a slippery par save to maintain a one-stroke edge over a surging Hovland.
Scheffler clawed his way to two back, but that would be as close as the Texan came to Koepka. Running out of holes, Scheffler's inability to apply pressure down the stretch -- along with birdies from Koepka and Hovland on the 14th -- meant the three-horse race was down to just the final pair.
Pars were exchanged on the tricky 15th, and the championship's deciding moment came soon after. With Hovland scrambling after hitting his second shot from the fairway bunker and into the lip, Koepka saw his moment to pounce. From the lush rough, his second tumbled towards the pin on the 16th and settled near tap-in distance for his seventh and final birdie of the day.
Koepka entered the hole leading by one and left up four. After that, Koepka's fifth major victory and spot among golf's immortality was secured.
Here's a breakdown of the rest of the leaderboard at the 2023 PGA Championship.
T2. Viktor Hovland (-7): For the third straight major championship, Hovland found himself with a legitimate chance to win. Unlike the first two, he still had that opportunity heading into the back nine as he matched Koepka punch for punch nearly the entire day. Birdie conversions on holes 13-14 maintained his one-stroke deficit before disaster struck two holes later. Hovland's chance to become the first major champion from Norway vanished when his second from the fairway bunker on the 16th embedded in the lip and led to a double bogey.
To make matters worse, Koepka went on to birdie the hole and stretch his lead to four. Hovland was able to cut the lead in half when all was said and done, but this major finish has to be more disappointing than the two prior given how close he was entering the back nine. Hovland is fun-loving, wide-smiling and capable of playing with the best of 'em.
"It's cool," said Hovland. "First place is a lot better than tied for second, but it is fun to even just have a chance to been one of these. Just making the cut and finishing 20th, you know, that's -- you haven't played poorly, but you've been a non-factor in the tournament. So to be in the last group, that was my second time and been in contention for three of these. That's pretty cool."
T2. Scottie Scheffler (-7): The world No. 2 once again snuck up on the field on Sunday. Stalling in the initial portion of his final round, Scheffler found some birdies before the turn just as Koepka began to struggle. He went from seven down to three down in the span of 30 minutes and suddenly launched himself into the conversation. Scheffler got as close as two with birdies on Nos. 13-14, but it ultimately proved to be too little too late.
After getting to 5 under at the 36-hole mark, Scheffler played his final 36 in 2 under lowlighted by his third-round 73. A victory would have been Scheffler's second major in six tries and his third rather large trophy (including the Players Championship). While it was not meant to be, Scheffler continues to stake his claim as the best player in the world -- he will steal that No. 1 spot from Jon Rahm on Monday when the Official World Golf Rankings are updated -- and he hasn't finished outside the top 12 on a leaderboard since October 2022.
T4. Bryson DeChambeau, Kurt Kitayama, Cameron Davis (-3): Golf is better when DeChambeau is playing well. He shot out the gates with a 4-under 66 only to play his final 54 holes in a 1-over fashion to claim his first worldwide top five since the 2021 BMW Championship. After gaining nearly six strokes with the big stick the first two days, the 2020 U.S. Open champion struggled with off the tee but showed a ton of guts in the process.
T7. Rory McIlroy, Sepp Straka (-2): McIlroy's up-and-down final round was an encapsulation of his week. The 34-year-old arrived on site with a visible chip on his shoulder, lamenting that he was feeling less than 100% physically. Then, he got off to yet another poor start in a major championship. The world No. 3 battled back Thursday and continued his march over the next 54 holes. He again showed that he had more than enough firepower to contend down the stretch. McIlroy carded 10 birdies over the weekend, but the mistakes piled up. Where does Rory go from here? Now nine years removed from his last major triumph at the 2014 PGA Championship, he appears to be searching for his identity as he leaves yet another one inside the top 10 but without a trophy.
"I'll look back on this week as proud of how I hung in there, and I guess my attitude and sticking to it, not having my best stuff," said McIlroy. "Probably not a ton of memorable golf shots hit. My playing partner today hit a couple memorable golf shots, though. Yeah, the atmosphere out there, playing with Michael [Block], was unbelievable. We both got amazing support, but you know, he got unbelievable support, understandably so, being in this position as a club pro and playing so well and, you know, competing into the latter stages of a major championship. It was really impressive."
T9. Patrick Cantlay, Cameron Smith, Justin Rose (-1): It will go down as Cantlay's fourth straight top 15 finish in a major championship, but even he knows there is still work to be done. The world No. 4 got off to a dreadful start Thursday and played his final 54 holes in 5 under. He polished off his time in Rochester with a 4-under 66. Cantlay ranked second in strokes gained off the tee on a course that demanded excellence with the big stick but fell woefully short on and around the green. He was never close to sniffing contention.
T15. Michael Block, Tyrrell Hatton and two others (+1): What more is there to say? The club pro from Southern California took New York by storm in his fifth appearance at a PGA Championship. He nearly touched the lead Friday and got welcomed into the weekend with tee times alongside 2013 U.S. Open champion Justin Rose on Saturday and McIlroy on Sunday. As if that wasn't enough, Block gave the rowdy Rochester faithful even more to cheer about with a hole-in-one on the par-3 15th. Even that wasn't his best moment in the final round as the 46-year-old converted an unlikely up-and-down on the 72nd hole to secure his spot in the 2024 PGA Championship at Valhalla.
Day breaks five year winless drought by winning AT&T
Jason Day breaks five-year winless drought, wins 2023 AT&T Byron Nelson
Rain pelted Jason Day as he lined up his approach shot from the fairway.
With a wedge in hand, he fired at the back right pin on the par-5 18th hole at TPC Craig Ranch. His ball landed just right of the flag, took one small hop and then spun back to two feet.
It has been five years since Jason Day won on the PGA Tour, but his winless drought is over. Day was phenomenal Sunday at the AT&T Byron Nelson, carding a 9-under 62 to win by one shot at 23 under in the same tournament he picked up his first career win 13 years ago.
“I don’t know how to explain it,” Day said. “I came into the week after missing last week’s cut, and I was kind of fed up with having to go over like a lot of technical thoughts with my swing. So I just decided I’m just going to go out and just try and play some golf.”
For Day, it’s his 13th PGA Tour victory and first since the 2018 Wells Fargo Championship.
Si Woo Kim, who played with Day in the penultimate pairing, birdied the 18th, as well, to momentarily tie the Aussie at 22 under, but Day tapped in his approach in a steady downpour before walking off the green and embracing his family.
“I was very close to calling it quits,” Day said of his thoughts during his struggles. “I never told my wife that, but I was OK with it just because it was a very stressful part of my life.
“Ellie (Jason’s wife), she never gave up on me trying to get back to the winner’s circle again. She just always was pushing me to try and get better.
“Yeah, I don’t know. It feels strange to be sitting here. I don’t know how else to explain it.”
It rained off and on throughout the day, but a downpour started once Day’s group reached the 18th tee. There were even claps of thunder as the final group approached the 18th green.
Day, 35, started his round with a pair of pars before three straight birdies on Nos. 3-5. He then birdied the ninth to turn in 4-under 32.
A birdie on 10 moved him to 19 under and into a six-way tie for the lead. But it was his chip-in birdie from the fringe on 12 that gave him the solo lead and put him in the driver’s seat the rest of the way.
“A couple years ago with all the stress — the stuff that was going on personally, it’s just strange that all that stuff kind of adds up and it’s nice to be able to — feeling like I’m on the other side of that,” Day said.
Austin Eckroat, one of the three 54-hole leaders, had an eagle putt on the final hole to tie Day, but he left it short. Nevertheless, the 24-year-old Tour rookie made the birdie to finish at 22 under and closed with a bogey-free 6-under 65 for his best finish on Tour. He led the field in Strokes Gained: Putting for the week.
“I felt great all day,” Eckroat said. “Slept good last night, really surprised myself with how I felt. When I came out and birdied the first hole, it really settled the nerves a little bit. Everything was solid, and I really felt like I played well enough to win.
“It’s just hard to beat a guy that goes out and shoots 9 under. A lot of positives to build off of.”
Marty Dou and Ryan Palmer, the other co-leaders, each shot 3-under 68 to finish at 19 under and T-7.
C.T. Pan matched Day with a 62, which including a pair of eagles on the back nine. It also was the lowest round of his PGA Tour career by two shots.
Dallas native Scottie Scheffler, who would’ve moved to No. 1 in the world with a victory, shot a bogey-free 6-under 65 on Sunday, but he finished T-5 at 20 under.
Now, Day heads to Rochester, New York, site of the 105th PGA Championship at Oak Hill Country Club. Day won the 2015 PGA at Whistling Straits.
Source: GolfWeek USA